NBA Betting Systems
Do NBA Betting Systems work?
Pretty much every NBA bettor is looking for a way to win more money. And the common advice is to keep up on injury reports, study in-depth stats, consider key matchups and focus on one or two divisions.
But while all of this is certainly good NBA betting strategy, some people are looking for a shortcut...a way to cut down on the amount of time it takes to make winning picks. And for these bettors, systems are often a very attractive prospect.
Some NBA betting systems involve looking across the league in search of one key aspect. For example, a certain strategy may call on players to only bet on home favorites who are coming off of two straight losses. Other systems can require more complicated mathematics that are supposedly guaranteed to work.
In either case, it's worth looking at a few simple examples of NBA betting strategies, discuss if you should ever pay for a system, and talk about the overall effectiveness of these strategies.
High Totals System
About.com sports betting authority Allen Moody came up with this system, which is quite simple to learn. With High Totals, you need to find non-conference games where the over/under is 220 points or higher; then you bet the over. Sound too good to be true? Well Moody says that this system went 31-18 (63.5%) from 2004-05 to 2008-09.
Widely used in casino games, the Martingale is also used by sports bettors because of its simplicity and perceived success rate. The main idea behind the Martingale is that you're doubling wagers every time you lose. But after each win, you return to the original wager amount.
For example, if you were to bet $11 to win $10 and lose, you'd double your next wager to $22. Assuming you also lose this one, your next bet would be worth $44. If you won the $44 bet, you'd return to the $11 wager with a profit of $7 ($40 - $22 - $11 = $7). In theory, this is a profitable long-term system; however, if you were to go on a lengthy losing streak, it would devastate your bankroll.
Betting Against Favorites after Blowout Wins System
Okay, so there's no pretty name for this system, but it's worth covering nonetheless. You start by searching for home favorites that are favored by 10 points or more in the spread. From here, you look to see if they won their last game by 15 points or more. Assuming the team blew their opponent out by 15 points or more, you bet on the underdog.
According to SportsInsights, home favorites of 10 points or move who are coming off 15-plus point wins are just 110-149 (42.5%) against the spread since 2003. Anybody who would've bet the underdog every time in these situations would have had an excellent 57.5% win rate.
Should you pay for NBA Betting Systems?
NBA wagering strategies have given rise to an industry within the sports betting world since "experts" are constantly hawking their systems as the best out there. Furthermore, these can't-fail strategies are normally advertised online with clever sales letters and testimonials.
Of course, these systems don't come without a price - and often a steep price at that! So is it worth spending money on an NBA betting system? On average, the answer is "no" because most wagering strategies aren't worth the price being charged for them. In addition to this, many systems don't even result in long-term profits.
However, this isn't to say that every single system is completely worthless. But if you're going to find any NBA strategies, you need to do your research and read reviews before purchasing one.
The Overall Effectiveness of NBA Systems
Many people get interested in systems because they think that these strategies are some sort of get-rich-quick scheme. And if you going into sports betting with that kind of attitude, you're going to end up a long-term loser.
The truth is that no NBA betting system guarantees profits in the long-run; and if one did, everybody would use it and sportsbooks would go out of business. Even systems that are proven winners - like Allen Moody's High Points Total - aren't fool-proof strategies. Instead, they're normally based on small sample sizes like the 31-18 record that Moody boasts of.
It's worth mentioning though that some systems are good for implementing into your overall NBA betting strategy. For example, you could use the High Points Total to find an attractive matchup, then study it further before making a wager. Above all, remember that there's no substitute for hard work and doing your own research.