MLB Betting Strategy
MLB Betting Strategy - Starting Pitching
Few team sports in the world feature a single position that's as critical as the starting pitcher in baseball. A great starting pitcher can completely dominate the opposing team's batting lineup and deliver an easy win. So it goes without saying that you should pay special attention to starters when making MLB bets.
But herein lies the problem: betting lines are created with the public in mind, and everybody is going to be looking at starting pitching stats on both teams. So just glancing at stats like ERA and WHIP aren't going to separate you from the pack. If you want to go above and beyond what the public is willing to look at, it's important to focus on some more obscure aspects of starting pitching. This being said, here are key points that baseball bettors should look for when placing MLB wagers.
1. Look at Last Three Outings
One of the best ways to find value in starting pitching is by checking out a starter's last three outings. Based on everything that happens in a Major League Baseball season - including weather changes, injuries, mental burnout, and changes in confidence - a pitcher's performance varies as the year wears on. So it's highly important that you check out how a starter has been faring recently and see how this relates to the given line.
2. What kind of Pitcher is the Starter?
When you really focus on a pitcher's style, you can often see where they excel. Some pitchers are strikeout guys, some rely on flyball pop-ups, and others like to lead players into groundballs. Depending upon the specific ballpark, a hurler's style could have a major influence on the game. For example, flyball pitchers tend to have more trouble in a small park, or a stadium like Coors Field where the air is thin. Likewise, groundball pitchers can struggle on turf, where the harder surface leads to harder-hit groundballs.
3. Aging Aces
Sometimes a staff will come off of a great year, only to have a difficult following season due to their high pitch count and arm fatigue. However, the pitcher's reputation will still warrant a high perception among the public for a good portion of the year. So if you identify a struggling staff ace early on, you can gain an edge on the public by betting against this starter - especially when their club is a heavy favorite.
4. Check out In-Depth Stats on Starters
As mentioned before, simply looking at ERA and WHIP isn't going to set you apart from the public.This is where hard work comes into the equation because you can look at more in-depth statistics like the pitcher vs. righty's and lefty's, their performance in night and day games, their history against certain teams, and how they perform in certain weather.
5. Don't get Tunnel Vision with Starting Pitching
Seeing as how starters usually pitch an average of six innings a game, they are definitely an important aspect of baseball betting. However, this still leaves three innings open for the bullpen along with other factors such as hitting and fielding. That said, you can't put 95% of your research into starting pitching and virtually ignore everything else.
Once you get good at measuring a starter's potential performance against the given line, you'll be a lot closer to experiencing success with baseball betting.